By Peet Serfontein & Motheo Tlhagale
We initiate a long position with a target price of R37.50 and recommend a stop-loss at R30.00.
Shaftesbury Capital plc is a United Kingdom (UK)-listed mixed-use real estate investment trust (REIT) focused on London's West End. The company owns and manages a diversified portfolio of retail, hospitality, office and residential properties across prime destinations including Covent Garden, Soho, Carnaby Street and Chinatown.
With rental income generated from shops, restaurants, cafes, offices and residential units, the company provides investors with exposure to some of London's highest-footfall commercial districts and benefits from a diverse tenant base across the retail, leisure and office sectors. Its portfolio is concentrated in central London, making shareholder returns closely linked to tourism, consumer spending, office demand and property market conditions in the West End.
Technically, the price trading near a major high-volume zone makes the share an interesting long candidate, as areas with significant historical trading activity often provide support during pullbacks (see insert on the main chart). At current levels, the share remains well above its period low and is positioned near the upper end of a key trading range, suggesting that a sustained move through higher-volume resistance areas could strengthen the bullish case and support a push towards previous highs.
A history of rebounds following weak periods supports the trade idea, with SHC having delivered positive returns after several prior years of negative performance. While past recoveries do not guarantee a similar outcome, the recurring pattern suggests the potential for a rebound following the share's recent underperformance, supporting a constructive outlook.
The share has recently broken above its 200 day simple moving average (SMA) at R30.45, a widely followed indicator of the long term trend. This move suggests that the broader price structure is improving and could signal a shift in market sentiment, with the 200 day SMA potentially becoming a support level on future pullbacks. A sustained hold above this level, particularly if accompanied by stronger momentum and volume, would provide further confirmation of the bullish outlook.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | SHC |
| Industry | Equity Real Estate Investment |
| Market Capital (GBP) | 62.25 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | -2.26% |
| Return Year-to-date | 1.25% |
| Current Price (GBP) | 31.76 |
| 52-Week High (GBP) | 41.99 |
| 52-Week Low (GBP) | 28.02 |
| Financial Year End | December |
| Shaftesbury Capital's share price has been broadly resilient with the share recovering from mid-year lows and recently regaining positive momentum. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY25 | FY26E | FY27E | FY28E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (GBP) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 |
| Growth (%) | 8.89 | 8.16 | 7.55 | |
| Dividend Per Share (GBP) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.05 |
| Growth (%) | 10.28 | 6.60 | 7.05 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 29.31 | 27.10 | 25.20 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 3.06 | 3.27 | 3.48 | |
| Strong earnings and dividend growth is expected over the forecast period, supported by the quality of the portfolio (enhanced by its unique assets, which have proven to be resilient throughout economic cycles), the experienced and focused management team, as well as its long-term growth prospects combined with prudent risk management and a strong capital structure. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Long-term fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CML SA - Close position (Stop-loss) | 43.21 | 40.70 | -5.8% | The position was closed after the share hit its stop-loss. | 26 October 2026 |
| WBO SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 145.00 | 142.00 | -2.1% | The price is near the lower boundary of its upward-sloping linear regression channel, which remains of interest. The price also remains just below its 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum supports the trade. We retain the R167.00 target and a R138.00 trailing stop-loss. | 18 January 2027 |
| QLT SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 38.74 | 40.10 | +3.5% | The upward-sloping linear regression channel and fading downside momentum support the trade idea. Price remains below its 200-day SMA. We retain the R44.00 target and a trailing stop-loss at R39.20. | 30 November 2026 |
| BTI SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 877.50 | 983.37 | +12.1% | A developing-top pattern remains relevant. The price is also above its 200-day simple moving average and rising momentum supports the trade. We retain the R1 060.00 target and a R955.00 trailing stop-loss. | 30 November 2026 |
| CLH SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 4.50 | 4.42 | -1.8% | Price symmetry and improving momentum remain encouraging as the stock tests its 200-day SMA. Strengthening upside momentum supports the trade. We retain the R5.12 target and a trailing stop-loss at R4.25. | 11 January 2027 |
| LHC SA - Buy (Continue to hold) | 11.76 | 12.63 | +7.4% | Strong volume support and upside momentum support the trade idea. The stock remains above its 200-day SMA. We retain the R13.35 target and a trailing stop-loss at R12.35. | 9 November 2026 |
This trade idea can be actioned through FNB Local Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
