By Peet Serfontein & Khumbulani Kunene
We enter a long position with a target price of $450 and a stop-loss of $368.
Ralph Lauren Corporation is a United States (US)-based global luxury lifestyle company that designs clothing and accessories. The company markets and distributes men's, women's and children's apparel as well as accessories, fragrances, and home furnishings.
Founded in 1967, Ralph Lauren's popular brands include Polo Ralph Lauren, Purple Label, Double RL, Lauren and Chaps. The company sells its products through its own stores and online channels, wholesale partners and licensing arrangements.
Technically, the favourable AI and Average True Range (ATR) zones make the stock an interesting candidate for a potential long position (see larger insert on the main chart). This pattern highlights Ralph Lauren's target price of $450, translating to upside of ~15% from the current price of $391.25. The AI forecast based on an in-house developed model is $408.50 at one month and $498.94 at three months, indicating a bullish model outlook that places $450 between those forecasts.
The stock is also in the accumulation phase out of the Wykoff Price Cycle (see smaller insert on the main chart), suggesting that buying demand may be absorbing available selling pressure. If successive lows are rising and support continues to hold, it can indicate that buyers are becoming more active.
The start of upside price momentum according to the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram and the recent steep upwards trajectory of the on-balance volume (OBV) indicator supports our bullish view.
Share performance
Share information
| Share Code | RL US |
| Industry | Consumer Durables & Apparel |
| Market Capital (USD) | 23.31 billion |
| One-Year Total Return | 19.38% |
| Return Year-to-Date | 11.53% |
| Current Price (USD) | 391.25 |
| 52-Week High (USD) | 421.60 |
| 52-Week Low (USD) | 306.55 |
| Financial Year End | March |
| The price remains above its 200-day and 200-week simple moving average (SMA) which suggests that the medium- and long-term trend structure remains positive. | |
Consensus expectations (Bloomberg)
| FY26 | FY27E | FY28E | FY29E | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Headline Earnings per Share (USD) | 16.59 | 18.76 | 20.74 | 22.50 |
| Growth (%) | 13.07 | 10.57 | 8.48 | |
| Dividend Per Share (USD) | 3.65 | 3.94 | 4.17 | 4.44 |
| Growth (%) | 7.90 | 5.86 | 6.50 | |
| Forward PE (times) | 20.86 | 18.86 | 17.39 | |
| Forward Dividend Yield (%) | 1.01 | 1.07 | 1.13 | |
| The company is set to deliver strong earnings growth and stable dividends growth in the medium term, supported by its strong brand equity, growing direct-to-consumer business, and ongoing expansion in higher-margin international markets. | ||||
Buy/sell rationale
Technical analysis:
Fundamental view:
Update on previous trade ideas
| Share name and position | Entry | Current Price | Movement | Comment | Time to exit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TXN - Buy (Continue to hold) | 263.42 | 308.91 | +17.3% | The rebound from the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement remains of interest. Remains above the 200-day SMA. Fading downside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $322.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $295.00. | 17 November 2026 |
| COST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 924.59 | 992.13 | +7.3% | The weekly De-trended Price Oscillator (DPO) that remains in deeply negative territory remains of interest. Remains above its 200-day SMA. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $1 040.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$971.00. | 17 December 2026 |
| ISRG - Buy (Continue to hold) | 422.06 | 445.88 | +5.6% | The price at the lower range of an upsloping linear regression remains of interest. Crossed above its 200-day SMA. Strong upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $506.00 with a trailing stop-loss at ~$414.00. | 30 December 2026 |
| VST - Buy (Continue to hold) | 139.06 | 146.66 | +5.5% | The price at the lower range of an inclining channel pattern remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA. Weak upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $176.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $139.00. | 18 November 2026 |
| ISRG - Buy (Continue to hold) | 422.06 | 438.00 | +3.8% | The price at the lower range of an upsloping linear regression remains of interest. Testing its 200-day SMA. Strong upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $506.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $407.00. | 30 December 2026 |
| LOW - Buy (Continue to hold) | 198.53 | 198.18 | -0.2% | The price at the lower range of the DPO indicator remains of interest. Remains below its 200-day SMA and the trade idea is regarded as a counter-trend strategy. Upside momentum is supportive. Our profit target is maintained at $228.00 with a trailing stop-loss at $193.00. | 3 February 2027 |
| UI - Buy (Continue to hold) | 626.48 | 599.53 | -4.3% | A developing falling-wedge pattern remains of interest. Remains just below its 200-day SMA. Fading upside momentum is a concern. Our profit target is maintained at $780.00, with a trailing stop-loss at $585.00. | 17 December 2026 |
This trade idea can be actioned through FNB Global Trader by visiting shares.fnb.co.za.
